Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts

Friday, June 29, 2007

10 Pre-Draft Predictions for the Upcoming NBA Season

10 Predictions for the upcoming NBA season

1. Dallas will overreact to their first round exit by making a stupid trade. We’ve seen them do this before. When they lost barely got by a banged-up Sacramento team and lost to the Spurs, they naturally assumed they had to get bigger inside and traded away the person who got them past Sacramento and was the big shot taker that Dallas has always needed: Nick Van Exel. Dallas didn’t do anything again until Van Exel was replaced by a player of a similar mold: Jason Terry. Now, that they’ve gone down to 8th seed Golden State, they’re going to overreact by adjusting their team to the one that beat them, instead of trying to run with the team to beat. It’s the stupidest possible move and one they can’t help but make.

2. Golden State will fail to build on their surprising season. We’ve seem them do this before. Not only that, it always happens when a team catches the league by surprise one year, but next year, everyone’s ready for them. Hell, it happened in their own division this year, or did everyone forget about the Clippers? I know I did.

3. Shawn Marion will be traded and exposed. And if it doesn’t happen this year, this one will happen at some point, because the media has convinced this man that he’s better than he really is. They’ve also convinced all of you of the same thing. Listen, Shawn Marion is an amazing athlete with freakishly long arms, who can get off the ground quicker than most and has a nose for the ball and can play in the lights. But there’s always a guy like that in the league. Would you really build your offense around him, though? Would you depend on him to put your team on his back and score 25-30 a night? Not with that jump shot, you shouldn’t. But at least one general manager is going to do exactly that.

4. Billy Knight will waste at least ONE of the Hawks’ draft picks. The situation has turned out too well for Billy Knight to deal with properly. He’s going to blow it, because he can’t help himself. I assure you, one of those picks (picks 3 and 11) is going to be wasted on a player that we don’t need. The guy might be a good player, too. But when his name is called, the fourteen Hawks fans left are going to slap their heads in unison. I’ll go so far as to name the name that will likely be called: Either Brandan “the Neo-Marion” Wright or Joakim “Camby 2K8” Noah. He can’t help himself. He just can’t. (Note: I proved to be wrong here.)

5. Detroit will no longer be a championship-level team. Oh, yeah. It’s so over. Flip Saunders is still your coach and still incapable of making adjustments and coaching defense. Some hapless GM is going to be suckered into paying Chauncey Billups that big deal. Rasheed Wallace might have actually worn out his welcome. Chris Webber is not the be-all, end-all. Your starting point guard might actually be Carlos Delfino, who’s not a bad player, but also isn’t a starter. Don’t get me wrong…this isn’t going to be a bad team. They’ll win 50 games or so. But threatening for the championship? No, that ship has sailed.

6. Antoine Walker and Gary Payton are history in Miami. Obviously, this team has to get younger, because Shaq’s days are numbered and they’ve got to become a more up-tempo team to run with Dwyane Wade. Also, judging by the way this team went out (injuries aside), we saw a team age 40 years in about 8 months. I don’t believe they’ll get much in the draft, so the only choice is to make trades. And the only thing they have that can even be considered “trade bait” is Antoine Walker. Who would want him? I don’t have all the answers, but a team like Minnesota is screaming for help to keep KG from leaving. And Gary Payton will likely be thrown in to make the numbers work. Honestly, I’m shocked they made it through last season without being traded.

7. Kobe is going to have a meltdown. When I actually made this list, Kobe hadn’t started making trade demands yet. I wrote this list one night, put it down and forgot I even wrote it. Two weeks passed, and we’ve seen Kobe demand a trade, recant the statement, demand it again, and trash his GM and back-up center to perfect strangers on the street, who videotaped the whole thing. I’d say that counts as a meltdown.

8. So will Kevin Garnett. Well, another meltdown, anyway.

9. Allen Iverson will be playing elsewhere. Because I just can’t see the Iverson/Carmelo Anthony team-up ending in any way other than a fight.

10. Cleveland will be overhauled. Let’s face it, they were lucky to even be in the Finals. And unless they want to keep taking beatings like the one they just took, they’d better make some moves, and fast. Let’s start with a coaching upgrade.

Honorable mention – Dwight Howard still won’t have any post moves. What are they teaching these kids in high school? Does anyone have any old tapes of Hakeem Olajuwon or Kevin McHale? Can they let Dwight Howard borrow them over the weekend or something?

Honorable mention 2 – Daniel Gibson will be next year’s Elliott Perry. Because there’s always that one player who has the breakout season until teams start bothering to play defense against him. You remember Elliott Perry, right? Neither do I. In fact, Charles Barkley was his best damn friend and he hasn’t mentioned him on TV since 1995.

Honorable mention 3 – The patch of hair on Drew Gooden’s hair will continue to mystify me. Seriously. What the hell is it?

Thoughts About the Draft

I didn’t even watch all of last night’s NBA draft, as I’d assume, few people actually do. I watched the lottery, though, and I caught some of the second round. I had to skip some of the middle, because TNA was showing Kurt Angle vs. Christian Cage vs. Rhino over on Spike TV. But after looking back at the draft picks and seeing some of the analysis on SportsCenter, I can see that there were a few surprises, mainly because the guys on there told me that they were surprised.

The running theme of the night, as always, is the stupidest justification for drafting a player, “upside potential,” whatever that means. I never understood why you’d draft a player who MIGHT be good, instead of drafting a player who’s good already. But before I drop 10,000 words on why Brandan Wright should have stayed at North Carolina, let me talk a little about the other running theme of the night (or at least, the lottery picks): The inability to shoot.

There were 14 players in the lottery and of those 14, the only ones who didn’t catch the comment from Jay Bilas about working on their shot was Kevin Durant (because that’s what he does), Greg Oden (because he’s never more than 5 feet from the basket at any given time), and Al Horford (because…ditto). Now, here’s what I don’t get: How do you get this far in your basketball career and can’t shoot?

All I’m saying is what were you doing all that time when you were alone on the playground or in the gym? Were you tongue-kissing the ball or just humping it? How do you spend that much time playing ball and still can’t shoot? Hell, I’ve never even played organized ball and I can shoot. I just fail to understand how in three years at Florida, Joakim Noah (I’m coming back to you shortly, sir) can’t shoot consistently. I fail to understand how in FOUR years at Texas A&M, Acie Law IV isn’t a better shooter. As a college ballplayer, chances are that at least 8 hours out of every day, you’re doing something that involves a basketball. If you seriously call yourself practicing, how is it that you can’t shoot?

And they wonder why the Europeans are coming along like they are. Does anyone out there have that old Dr. J basketball fundamentals tape? Anyone?

It was interesting hearing some of the backhanded comments about the GMs. Danny Ainge got trashed by Stephen A. Smith (he kept using the word “atrocious”), and the word that they wanted to use to describe the GM in Milwaukee was “stupid,” but they couldn’t say it. Billy Knight received a pass, but Lord knows why, and they should have just called Billy King “dead man walking.” I’m still not over the Allen Iverson situation, either. And I’m still not done talking about Kevin McHale. It’s quite simple, really…when you have a dominant point guard, go get a big man. When you have a dominant big man, go get a point guard. You shouldn’t have to have one half of the puzzle in place for 10 years and wait for him to start demanding a trade before you realize this. I don’t blame Kobe Bryant for what he’s doing at all. There needs to be a revolt against stupidity in the front office.

Anyway, getting to the draft…

1. Greg Oden – Portland Trailblazers. The most unsurprising pick since LeBron James in 2003.

2. Kevin Durant – Seattle Supersonics. The most unsurprising pick since Greg Oden.

3. Al Horford – Atlanta Hawks. A good pick that’s only tempered by the fact that Billy Knight has drafted this man at least two other times in the last two years under an assumed name. The difference is, this time he’s actually a good player.

4. Mike Conley, Jr. – Memphis Grizzlies. Other than the fact that I wouldn’t have been mad at the Hawks for taking him, I have nothing really to say about this pick. I am surprised that this team is still in existence, though.

Jeff Green – Boston Celtics. He was traded to Seattle along with Wally S. and Delonte West for Ray Allen and Glen “Big Baby” Davis. Admittedly, I haven’t seen Jeff Green play outside of the highlights on that one shot that he hit in the NCAA Tournament, and Glen Davis has only impressed me because I’m surprised that a grown man will let other grown men call him “Big Baby” to his face. I will say that this trade doesn’t make sense for Boston, mainly because they’ve already got Ray Allen on their team. His name is just Paul Pierce. They’ve also already got Allen Ray, which I think is hilarious. Plus, they gave up the one decent point guard that they had in Delonte West. I swear, I wouldn’t trust Danny Ainge to put together a 100-piece puzzle correctly, let alone an NBA team.

Yi Jianlian – Milwaukee Bucks. I really have no clue how to process this one, because I didn’t see China play in the World Championships, and even if I did, I wouldn’t have known who the hell I was looking at. I do know that the Chinese Consulate prevented Milwaukee from seeing him workout and that the GM of Milwaukee has never actually seen him play. It was stated that he was going off the word of his father, Del Harris, who coaches for the Mavericks and was a one-time coach of the Chinese National Team. This can’t end well for the Bucks.

Corey Brewer – Minnesota. Great defender, can’t shoot. Kevin Garnett is probably on top of the tallest building in Minneapolis (7 stories) with a pistol and a bottle of Grey Goose, demanding that the Wolves trade him or the “distraught multi-millionaire gets it.”

Brandan Wright – Charlotte. I think Michael Jordan just saw that he played for Carolina and decided to take him. It’s not like the Bobcats have actual NEEDS or anything. Then, while being interviewed, Wright said that Jordan didn’t want any of him in one-on-one. Jordan woke up just long enough from beating his friends in PokerGolf to ship Wright off to Golden State for Jason Richardson. The ESPN guys wondered why Charlotte would trade Wright for Richardson. I wondered why Golden State would trade Richardson for Wright. I’d rather have to consistent athletic two-guard over the vanishing, skinny, power forward who’s useless outside of six feet and can be pushed over by a strong wind.

9. Joakim Noah – Chicago Bulls. I screamed out of anger when I heard this pick, because now I have to spend the next decade supporting the last player I wanted them to draft. Anyone who’s ever heard me talk about Joakim Noah knows that I’m not that big on him, and that’s mostly because I see him becoming the next Marcus Camby. And if I wanted that, I wouldn’t have been begging the Bulls to deal Tyson Chandler. See, we need a low-post scorer in Chicago and Joakim Noah is everything but. He’s my prime example of guys in this draft who can’t shoot. The guys we have down low right now are Ben “Complaining about the offense, but never taking the time to work on anything offensive” Wallace, Tyrus “The coordination of a drunk baby horse” Thomas, PJ Brown (I got nothing bad to say about him), and Michael “One-Man Buffet Line” Sweetney. The problem is, the only true low-post scorers in this draft got picked at 1 and 3. And somewhere between my blood curdling scream and laying in my bed, stroking my Chicago Bulls pillow for comfort, I began to accept that, at the very least, Noah will fit in with what the Bulls are doing. But he better not suck…I know that.

The rest of the draft….

Acie Law IV – (11) Atlanta Hawks. At least now we know how the Salim Stoudamire/Royal Ivey/Anthony Johnson logjam is going to end. And speaking of Stoudamire, I find it funny that Acie Law is the exact same player as he is. Does Billy Knight actually know who he has on his team? Billy, have you actually met the players you drafted or do you just wipe your memory clean from draft to draft?

Thaddeus Young (12) – Philadelphia 76ers. It’s going be really awkward seeing him play, because I’m still not used to hearing someone call out my name on TV. At least he spells it correctly. Other than that, I think this kid and Javaris Crittenton should have stayed in school. They couldn’t even get Georgia Tech to win consistently in the ACC. I hope they don’t expect Young to get them over the hump, even in the saddest of all NBA conferences.

The Knicks/Blazers Trade – Finally, Isiah Thomas is on the positive end of a deal. The Knicks get Zach Randolph and a few others, The Blazers get Channing Frye and Steve Francis. I just want to know how he tricked someone into giving up a legitimate big man for so little. Well, I shouldn’t so “so little.” I mean, Steve Francis is a huge headache when he goes outside of the offense on every play. Isn’t he supposed to be the point guard?